It's All In The Numbers...

It seems that all everyone is talking about is the numbers game between Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo. The PS3 with its $500 and $600 pricetags seems to have a major uphill battle against it, especially when you consider that the Wii will end up selling for less than $250. However, what I wanted to bring up is that people are somewhat forgetting what comes with the PS3 at that price. Obviously, the Blu-ray drive, a wireless controller and an HDD. Now, when you take the two different sets for the 360 and throw in these features, this is how much they would cost:

Xbox 360 Core System - $300
HDD - $100
Wireless Controller - $50
HD-DVD Drive - $200
Total = $650 (vs. $500 for the PS3 Core System)

Xbox 360 Premium System - $400
HD-DVD Drive - $200
Total = $600 (vs. $600 for the PS3 Premium System)

Now, that still brings up the fact that the 360 doesn't have an HDMI port and its HDD is smaller.

So, I don't think that there can be any argument that the price of the PS3 is too much for what you are getting. It's a downright bargain. I think the issue is if Sony should have included all the features that it did. Take out the Blu-Ray and you could have probably cut quite a bit off the cost. The same is the case with including a wireless controller in the PS3's Core System instead of a corded one.

However, that is the situation right now.

Years from now, once these components drop in price, I am willing to bet that both developers and gamers will be extremely thankful that they were included. Sony is looking for at least a good 8-year cycle with the PS3 ( I consider the PS2 to have a 7 year cycle given the great games coming out next year for it.), so it makes sense that the cost is kind of high at the beginning. My first DVD cost me $600 and that was on sale. Now, (six years later) you can get a decent DVD player for like $50 and it does a lot more than mine originally did, like playing DivX movies, etc. The point is that people are ok with other forms of consumer electronics being expensive at the start, but they are having problems with game consoles doing the same thing. Granted, that is because most game consoles start in at less than $300 or at least have one version at that price range.

In this particular case, I expect that Sony is planning for this generation to last longer than the last one. I can't speak for Microsoft as they have shown me that they don't mind quickly killing off support for their current system in order to move on. For early adopters, that is generally fine as they already have a good four years or so on the system. However, for the mainstream audience (and developers), this totally sucks. Year numbers 4-6 are arguably the most profitable as you have already done all the major R&D you really need to do and the development costs for games have dropped off considerably. You also have access to the largest market available. That's why you see games being made for Sony systems well into their 7th or 8th years. This was true for the original PlayStation and will definitely be true for the PS2.

Sony knows the mainstream audience and they know that it's important to eventually reach a price where everyone can afford a system. You can buy a $50 PlayStation right now and still have a huge selection of games that can easily be found. Imagine how many people will buy a PS2 once it hits $99 or $49... It's the people who come in on the tail-end of a gaming generation because that's when they can afford to. Imagine once the PS3 hits $99... That would be an mind-blowing bargain.

I'm kind of getting off-track here, but the Sony philosophy (at least as it appears to be to me) is to try to market and sell the PS3 just like its other major consumer electronics equipment. A Blu-ray player costs $1000 right now, so only those extremely hard-core movie fans are going to pick one up. Most people are going to wait until it significantly drops in price before even considering getting one. This is exactly going to be the same for the PS3. The hard-core gamers are going to snatch it up right away because they know it is a bargain. Everyone else will slowly jump on the train once the price starts to head south. Now, the issue I am concerned about is how quickly the price will drop. If it isn't substantial over the next two years, that transition from hard-core to mainstream is going to take a lot longer than normal. However, if Sony is expecting this generation to last longer than past ones, then this slower adoption rate might not be that big of an issue. As long as they hit a considerable number by year four or five then we could easily see the sales of the PS3 skyrocket during its latter years. Who knows, right?

I'm just excited because we have three very different consoles doing three different things. The Wii is going for cheaper costs and innovation in its controller. The PS3 is trying to take all the top technology and cram it into a system that will hopefully last a long, long time but costs a lot right now. The 360 is in the middle with a strong online focus and an average pricepoint, but it hasn't really been able to capitalize on its early launch quite yet. However, its second generation of games are going to do a lot to show gamers what the console is really capable of.

So, this is going to be one of the most interesting and refreshing three-way console battles yet. I only wish I could jump ahead like four years and see how things end up... But what would be the fun in that, right?