A Three Console World?
If you asked me even a few years ago, I probably wouldn’t believe that the videogame industry could successfully sustain three different consoles, at least for a substantial amount of time. What ends up happening is someone either eventually bows out and attempts to start up the next generation prematurely or they simply become a software publisher, like Sega did. Yet, it looks like this generation is going to pan out to be a three horse race that is much closer than previous derbies have been.
Microsoft has taken advantage of their one-year lead to craft a console experience that has hardcore U.S. gamers eating out of its hands by providing consistent updates to that experience that genuinely improve enjoyment of games and community. Sony has proven with the PSP that updates can radically improve a piece of hardware, but they are certainly getting their butts kicked as far as next-gen consoles are concerned. Here we are, over six months out, and we still don’t have access to the XMB from within a game. I’m sure that the PS3 will become considerably more than it is right now over the coming years, but that doesn’t make the waiting any easier. What’s impressive on Microsoft’s efforts is that their console experience is so packed with features that they can confidently move on to include things that most people wouldn’t even bother with, such as IM cross-platform support. Being able to send instant messages to Windows users isn’t really that appealing to me, but the fact that it will be available next month just adds another bullet point to the Xbox 360 feature list and provides a very clear picture of a console that is easily greater than the sum of its individual parts. There’s no wonder why the console has been as successful as it has been and it will continue to drive North American sales and development interest until Sony can somehow catch up, which will take several years even in a best case scenario. Worse case is that the PS3 never quite catches up and remains a second or even third place contender and domestic third-party support for it comes merely in the form of mediocre ports.
Nintendo is one of those horses who have burst from the gates with an amazing amount of energy and determination. It may not be the most powerful horse on the “next-generation” course but its jockey has a whole new perspective on the race and can do things that others can’t. This lean horse with a brand-new saddle could easily take the cup, but the race is long and there are a lot of places where it could slip up. The fans are definitely there with even older and younger ones cheering for the very first time. They might not have visited the track before, but there’s just something about this race and this horse that grabs their interest and they want to be a part of it all. Maybe this is partially due to the horse’s little brother which has done amazingly well in the other racing league and won over numerous hearts with his can-do attitude and innovative racing style. Still, does our “next-generation” horse have what it takes to end as strongly as it started or does it simply have 10 minutes in the spotlight before a bigger and stronger horse steals it away? We’ll have to wait and see but there’s no doubt that it’s a strong contender with its most enthusiastic fans situated across the ocean in Japan. Maybe that is where it will find its home? In my case, the Wii hasn’t really grabbed my interest yet. The controller seems too gimmicky still and there aren’t quite enough games to warrant a purchase of a third new console… yet. With Mario coming later this year, I may not be able to hold out anymore, but we’ll see. I was a bit disappointed with Mario Sunshine, so it’s sad to me that even a Mario title these days can’t always deliver the magic and innovation that I’ve always expected. I’m also one of those, apparently, limited cases where I would be playing the Wii on an HD set, which means it is going to look pretty bad. I don’t consider myself a graphics-driven gamer, but there is a certain benchmark that I’ve gotten used to over the last few years and when you have a system that hasn’t even really surpassed what has been released last generation then something is most definitely wrong. Zelda, IMHO, looked pretty nasty with low-res textures and tons of shimmering. Even though I love the series to death, the visual quality really made it hard for me to play and enjoy the game’s world. Oh, and it was way too long, too. Regardless, the Wii has managed to garner public appeal and grabbed the interest of non-gamers and it will probably remain the #1 console in Japan. Now, the question of if those new gamers will actually buy other games and not just continue to play Wii Sports, remains. My money is on the fad of the Wii considerably fading by the end of this year. I just don’t see the console having enough momentum to keep such a high level of interest alive, but time will tell if I’m wrong or not.
Sony is that classic hometown favorite that has run so many races before and is generally the one who takes the crown. It’s been there and done that so many times. However, interest in the predictable always wanes and there’s no surprise or big payout for those fans who stick with mudder. Sure, the race is still fun to watch but nothing truly amazing ever happens and the tickets are pretty expensive. Sure, you get some drinks and popcorn, but that doesn’t help those who just came from lunch. Yet, for those who are looking for a day of fun, they know they’ll get it. This horse will be in the race until the very end and it’s going to do everything it can to win over fans of all demographics. Due to this and its proven track record, Sony has always been a reliable bet for the Europeans. They love this horse even when it stumbles and they apparently don’t mind the high ticket prices either, since it is such a rich region. It seems like everyone owns a winery, for some reason. Ultimately, they just really like how it looks and they know that it’s won its last couple of major races. They don’t need surprises. They need reliability like a good European automobile and they are willing to pay for it. As with those crazy Europeans (and maybe this is because I am half British and have lived in Germany for many years), I am a strong believer in Sony. I’m a patient guy and I know that the money I put into the PS3 will come back to me in the forms of, at least, seven years of gaming bliss. And, as with my European brethren, I like high-end automobiles, not because they’re packed with fancy gadgets or other functions that are supposed to make my driving experience more enjoyable, but because it’s safe, solid and predictable. That is what I pay for and that is why I'm perfectly happy with my PS3. I know that it will be a year or two before the potential of this console is fully realized but I can wait… I’m not in a rush. As long as Sony continues to deliver the games I like to play and the features I personally am interested in than I’m not going anywhere. I don’t think the vast majority of the 130 million folks who bought PS2s are going anywhere either. But, as they say, it’s not for someone to take them; it’s for Sony to lose them. If these gamers aren’t happy then they’re going to go and root for another horse. So, it falls on Sony’s shoulders to make this race as exciting as possible. I know they’ll deliver, which is why I’m in the front row cheering them on.
So, my prediction is that Microsoft remains a tight lead in the U.S., with the Wii dominating Japan and the PS3 controlling Europe. If that’s the case, then you are going to see console sales break down to around 30-40 million each, which is plenty of gamers to sell to. Each console could easily have a very successful run and push industry growth in its own perspective areas. What do you think?
Microsoft has taken advantage of their one-year lead to craft a console experience that has hardcore U.S. gamers eating out of its hands by providing consistent updates to that experience that genuinely improve enjoyment of games and community. Sony has proven with the PSP that updates can radically improve a piece of hardware, but they are certainly getting their butts kicked as far as next-gen consoles are concerned. Here we are, over six months out, and we still don’t have access to the XMB from within a game. I’m sure that the PS3 will become considerably more than it is right now over the coming years, but that doesn’t make the waiting any easier. What’s impressive on Microsoft’s efforts is that their console experience is so packed with features that they can confidently move on to include things that most people wouldn’t even bother with, such as IM cross-platform support. Being able to send instant messages to Windows users isn’t really that appealing to me, but the fact that it will be available next month just adds another bullet point to the Xbox 360 feature list and provides a very clear picture of a console that is easily greater than the sum of its individual parts. There’s no wonder why the console has been as successful as it has been and it will continue to drive North American sales and development interest until Sony can somehow catch up, which will take several years even in a best case scenario. Worse case is that the PS3 never quite catches up and remains a second or even third place contender and domestic third-party support for it comes merely in the form of mediocre ports.
Nintendo is one of those horses who have burst from the gates with an amazing amount of energy and determination. It may not be the most powerful horse on the “next-generation” course but its jockey has a whole new perspective on the race and can do things that others can’t. This lean horse with a brand-new saddle could easily take the cup, but the race is long and there are a lot of places where it could slip up. The fans are definitely there with even older and younger ones cheering for the very first time. They might not have visited the track before, but there’s just something about this race and this horse that grabs their interest and they want to be a part of it all. Maybe this is partially due to the horse’s little brother which has done amazingly well in the other racing league and won over numerous hearts with his can-do attitude and innovative racing style. Still, does our “next-generation” horse have what it takes to end as strongly as it started or does it simply have 10 minutes in the spotlight before a bigger and stronger horse steals it away? We’ll have to wait and see but there’s no doubt that it’s a strong contender with its most enthusiastic fans situated across the ocean in Japan. Maybe that is where it will find its home? In my case, the Wii hasn’t really grabbed my interest yet. The controller seems too gimmicky still and there aren’t quite enough games to warrant a purchase of a third new console… yet. With Mario coming later this year, I may not be able to hold out anymore, but we’ll see. I was a bit disappointed with Mario Sunshine, so it’s sad to me that even a Mario title these days can’t always deliver the magic and innovation that I’ve always expected. I’m also one of those, apparently, limited cases where I would be playing the Wii on an HD set, which means it is going to look pretty bad. I don’t consider myself a graphics-driven gamer, but there is a certain benchmark that I’ve gotten used to over the last few years and when you have a system that hasn’t even really surpassed what has been released last generation then something is most definitely wrong. Zelda, IMHO, looked pretty nasty with low-res textures and tons of shimmering. Even though I love the series to death, the visual quality really made it hard for me to play and enjoy the game’s world. Oh, and it was way too long, too. Regardless, the Wii has managed to garner public appeal and grabbed the interest of non-gamers and it will probably remain the #1 console in Japan. Now, the question of if those new gamers will actually buy other games and not just continue to play Wii Sports, remains. My money is on the fad of the Wii considerably fading by the end of this year. I just don’t see the console having enough momentum to keep such a high level of interest alive, but time will tell if I’m wrong or not.
Sony is that classic hometown favorite that has run so many races before and is generally the one who takes the crown. It’s been there and done that so many times. However, interest in the predictable always wanes and there’s no surprise or big payout for those fans who stick with mudder. Sure, the race is still fun to watch but nothing truly amazing ever happens and the tickets are pretty expensive. Sure, you get some drinks and popcorn, but that doesn’t help those who just came from lunch. Yet, for those who are looking for a day of fun, they know they’ll get it. This horse will be in the race until the very end and it’s going to do everything it can to win over fans of all demographics. Due to this and its proven track record, Sony has always been a reliable bet for the Europeans. They love this horse even when it stumbles and they apparently don’t mind the high ticket prices either, since it is such a rich region. It seems like everyone owns a winery, for some reason. Ultimately, they just really like how it looks and they know that it’s won its last couple of major races. They don’t need surprises. They need reliability like a good European automobile and they are willing to pay for it. As with those crazy Europeans (and maybe this is because I am half British and have lived in Germany for many years), I am a strong believer in Sony. I’m a patient guy and I know that the money I put into the PS3 will come back to me in the forms of, at least, seven years of gaming bliss. And, as with my European brethren, I like high-end automobiles, not because they’re packed with fancy gadgets or other functions that are supposed to make my driving experience more enjoyable, but because it’s safe, solid and predictable. That is what I pay for and that is why I'm perfectly happy with my PS3. I know that it will be a year or two before the potential of this console is fully realized but I can wait… I’m not in a rush. As long as Sony continues to deliver the games I like to play and the features I personally am interested in than I’m not going anywhere. I don’t think the vast majority of the 130 million folks who bought PS2s are going anywhere either. But, as they say, it’s not for someone to take them; it’s for Sony to lose them. If these gamers aren’t happy then they’re going to go and root for another horse. So, it falls on Sony’s shoulders to make this race as exciting as possible. I know they’ll deliver, which is why I’m in the front row cheering them on.
So, my prediction is that Microsoft remains a tight lead in the U.S., with the Wii dominating Japan and the PS3 controlling Europe. If that’s the case, then you are going to see console sales break down to around 30-40 million each, which is plenty of gamers to sell to. Each console could easily have a very successful run and push industry growth in its own perspective areas. What do you think?
posted by Frosty @ 12:26 PM
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